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We have developed, validated and published a diabetes disease model that predicts the lifetime risk of various diabetes-related complications, and life expectancy, based on past, current and likely future patient characteristics. The model can be used to construct lifetime risk and life expectancy tables.

In this theme we will identify, test and pilot different graphical and interactive ways of showing the impact of better diabetic self-management on a patients’ risk of complications, life expectancy and quality of life.

The tool would be developed and tested in collaboration with patients, specialist nurses and GPs to obtain their views on metric(s), presentation, and practical options for implementation.

Patients’ understanding and perceptions of their life expectancy and risk of complications will be explored and compared with the model predictions. The costs associated with implementing the decision aid in different clinical practice settings will be estimated, as well as the potential lifetime costs and outcomes resulting from the use of the decision aid, for example if patient adherence were improved. These estimates would form part of the development work for a full evaluation study, in which a randomised clinical trial will assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the tool. 

Project leads: Prof Alastair Gray and Dr Jose Leal

Our team

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